The recent evolution of real GDP in the United States (with a total value of €23.66 trillion in 2023, €24.90 trillion in 2024 and an expected value of €26.04 trillion in 2025)¹ reflects a path of gradual slowdown following a period of solid growth. In 2023, the economy grew by 2.9%, driven mainly by consumer spending and increased business investment. In the following year, 2024, growth accelerated slightly to 2.8%, supported by expansionary fiscal policies and the continuation of the post-pandemic recovery. However, for 2025, the International Monetary Fund projects a significant slowdown, with growth estimated at just 1.8%, signalling the first effects of a more restrictive economic environment and the uncertainties associated with US trade and fiscal policy.

Between 2020 and 2025, the inflation rate in the United States shows a cycle of acceleration followed by gradual moderation. After a contained rate of 1.3% in 2020, inflation rose significantly to 4.7% in 2021 and reached a peak of 8.0% in 2022, reflecting the post-pandemic economic rebound, supply chain disruptions, and shocks in energy and food prices. From 2023 onwards, with the strengthening of restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, a progressive slowdown can be observed: 4.1% in 2023 and projections of 3.0% for 2024 and 2025. Although still above the 2% target, this trajectory indicates an effective effort to contain inflationary pressures, even in an uncertain economic context.

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